Marketers already know that millions of Americans just like Garberg are hooked on the Net. New data show that, on average, Internet users dial in for nearly 9.5 hours a week. But as users like Garberg spend more time online, social scientists are rushing to collect data about how they behave–and buy. Their hope: to reveal broader societal shifts and document how the new technology is changing lives. For e-businesses that depend on shoppers like Garberg, what they learn about the lives of Netizens will be invaluable.
How much time do they spend surfing? Do they read fewer books? Who is a bigger threat to privacy, Big Brother or Big Business? A new study by the Center for Communication Policy at UCLA put those questions to 2,096 households. What they found may be a sobering message for e-businesses: consumers are fearful that e-tailers are tracking their every online move–and even more worried about who is tracking their credit-card numbers. Overall, though, the survey gives a comprehensive view of life online and indicates that those fears tend to ease as online experience grows. “We think we have a pretty good photograph of America and the Internet in the year 2000,” says Jeffrey Cole, director of the UCLA center.
That photograph shows dramatic changes in the online population. “If you look at the first million people online, your worst fears about access come true,” says Cole. “White, male, young, affluent, highly educated. But if you look at the last million to go online, if you look at those who have gone online the last two years, it’s pretty encouraging. It’s the mass of America, more nonwhite than white, more female than male.” Slightly more than two thirds of Americans are now on the Net, according to the survey, and still more people are jumping on the bandwagon. More than 40 percent of those not currently connected say they intend to hook up within a year. The vast majority of current users–more than 80 percent–go online to surf the Web or access e-mail, while 57.2 percent use it to find hobby information and 56.6 percent to get the news.
Net users are also more plugged in generally than non-users–they read more books and newspapers, listen more to radio and recorded music, play more video games. But the UCLA numbers, like others before them, show that Internet use does come at the expense of television viewing. Net users watch 28 percent less television than nonusers.
The Net is already essential to those who frequent it. More than two thirds consider it an important source of information–compared to 53.1 percent who say the same about television and 46.8 percent for radio. Surprisingly, Net users trust what’s out there. More than half of those online, 54.7 percent, say that most or all online information is reliable.
They may trust the information, but they still have serious doubts about the medium. “No matter how you slice the data,” says Cole, “no matter whether you look at users, nonusers, experienced users, or inexperienced users, concerns about privacy and credit-card information dominate everything.” Overall, 63.6 percent of Net users and 76.1 percent of nonusers believe that “people who go online put their privacy at risk.” A small group of non-Net users, 3 percent in the latest survey, even report that privacy concerns have kept them off the Net altogether.
Where does the threat come from? Most people surveyed fretted more about the private sector than the government. More than three quarters of Net users say their e-mail and Web use is monitored at work. More importantly, they fear that other companies are watching. “On the Internet, there’s been very little fear of government tracking what we’re doing,” says Cole. “That fear has almost completely been transferred to corporations and marketers–our fear that they’re recording what we’re buying, tracking where we’re going, planting cookies on our computer, monitoring what we’re doing.”
That sentiment doesn’t bode well for online retailers, but consumers’ views on credit-card security may be even more worrisome. Nearly all Internet users, 91.2 percent, told the UCLA researchers that they are concerned about credit-card security. “We’ve found that credit-card security and privacy [worries] don’t keep people off the Internet,” Cole says, “it keeps them from buying.” Women seem more wary than men: just 45 percent of women buy online, compared with 57 percent of men. Shoppers also fret about shipping charges being tacked on to their bills and potential problems in returning their merchandise.
Analysts, though, still see plenty to be optimistic about. Forrester Research of Cambridge, Mass., predicts online sales will reach $269 billion by 2005–tremendous growth from 2000 estimates of $44.8 billion. And slightly more than half of Net users, 51.7 percent, now shop online, with more than a quarter doing so monthly and about 9 percent buying weekly. Still, most transactions are made by a small fraction of people. Just 15 percent of all Net users account for nearly half of all purchases, and a measly 4.5 percent account for almost a third.
The study also suggests that Net users’ security concerns decline as their online experience increases. Just 46 percent of people online for four years or more describe themselves as “very concerned” about security, compared to about three quarters of users with less than a year on the Net.
Shoppers’ willingness to key in their credit card numbers also increases with the amount of time they spend online, the survey found. About a quarter of people who have been online for less than a year have made a purchase, but 71 percent of those online for four or more years have bought something. And more than half of online shoppers say they will eventually “make many more online purchases.” “The advantages–saving time, not dealing with sales people–seem to become more important for frequent purchasers,” says Cole.
Garberg, the Seattle-area mother of four, discussed privacy risks with her husband, but went ahead with her shopping anyway. “I just did it,” she says, “because I thought it was really cool and really easy and really fast.” In the end, as more and more Americans make it onto the Net, cool, easy and fast may be enough to win them over.
